What every player dreams of.
The NBA Finals kick off this week between the Lakers of Los Angeles and Magic of Orlando. Personally I'm thrilled by the match up because after the Rockets were eliminated I really didn't have any rooting interests. Well, I hate Kobe and the Lakers but other than that I'm completely unbiased. Also, some could say I'm in love with Lebron but love is such a strong word, I prefer "like." I'm in like with Lebron.
Anyways, the finals are upon us again and after a memorable playoffs I'm excited for the finals because it could be one for the ages! or at least better than last year's, which I don't really remember. What I'm going to do here is break down the position battles and then give you an X-factor for each team then I'll give you my prediction and you will value all of this information because I'm the resident basketball expert and I've had quite a storied career myself. I carried my intramural team to some impressive (moral) victories. On to the analysis!
The Point Guard Battle-
Los Angeles has three pointguards in Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and Shannon Brown that when put together create a passable all star reserve. Meanwhile, Orlando has Rafer "Skip To My Lou" Alston, Anthony Johnson, and perhaps Jameer Nelson if he is cleared to play by the NBA. Rafer is too quick for Derek Fisher but if Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown show up they might be able to neutralize him, also, he makes some terrible decisions but he can put the ball in the basket and throws a mean alleyoop. Really, neither team's pointguards have to run their respective teams, if Fisher can hit his shots, Brown can penetrate, and Farmar can not be a useless piece of crap then the Lakers will win. Rafer can score but makes stupid decisions, Anthony Johnson is washed up but he can still shoot, and Jameer's return won't be as important as it seems, he hasn't played since before the All-Star break but maybe that doesn't really matter since all he has to do is throw alleys to Dwight Howard.
Edge-
Lakers (I have a feeling D-Fish will show up)
The Shooting Guard Battle-Kobe Bryant vs Courtney Lee, Michael Pietrus, and J.J. Reddick....yeah, um Kobe is going to get his, especially since this may very well be his best chance at his first post-Shaq title. Courtney Lee however has been absolutely nuts this playoffs and is a very good defender. Pietrus is another really good defender and they're going to make Kobe work for his points, but Kobe will get them. Lee and Pietrus have to hit their shots to make Kobe play tight defense on him and tire him out, they also have to make Kobe drive to the basket, that could be the difference in a long series. J.J. Reddick has to stay on the bench and cheer as hard as he can for his teammates.
Edge-
Lakers The Small Forward Battle- Hedo Turkoglu vs Trevor Ariza. This is an intriguing matchup because Ariza is slowly becoming an impressive wing player, however he's too small to defend against the smarter and bigger Michael Jordan of Turkey. The key in this matchup is Turkoglu's defense; Ariza can catch fire in a hurry and shoot the three ball. Turkoglu has to make sure that Ariza doesn't score over 18 points. When Ariza scores 20 points or more the Lakers are 14-2 in the playoffs (that's probably not true, I just made it up).
Edge-
MagicThe Power Forward Battle-Rashard Lewis vs Lamar Odom. Probably the closest position battle in this series. Both players are similar in that they can face up, are tall, athletic, and can play at the perimeter. Rashard Lewis is a better shooter and more consistent while Lamar Odom is stronger but has been hampered with a back bruise for quite some time now. When Odom's not in the game Lewis has to take over and he will play more minutes than Odom. Probably.
Edge-
MagicThe Center Battle-Dwight Howard and the Polish Hammer vs Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. This is closer than it seems. Gortat isn't very good, but he's passable and right now the same can be said of Bynum because to be honest I don't see that much in him. Pau Gasol is a good starting center but the athletic advantage he has over most centers is negated against Howard. He's also not strong enough to muscle Howard out of the paint so expect a big series from Dwight. But, I'm still not sold on Howard as the next great center. A big game from Howard doesn't guarantee a victory in the same was a big game from Duncan or Shaq does. Plus Howard has absolutely no post game other than jump as high as humanely possible and dunk it. If he had a reliable 8 footer or some ball handling he could be unstoppable, until then he's not the next Hakeem.
Edge-
MagicThe X-Factor-The referees. Easily the most important subplot throughout the entire playoffs, the refereeing in these games has been atrocious. The officials aren't letting the players play the game, instead they're trying to make the players be as passionless as possible. A hard foul is automatically a flagrant, a shoving match is automatically a technical. Let the game be played the way it should be. It's not bad enough that the refs over react but they are also inconsistent and don't call the game the same way throughout all four quarters. I really can't remember this many games being decided by so many bad calls and non-calls. I really can't predict which way the refereeing will go but I expect it'll effect the Magic more than the Lakers. If Dwight gets the calls he'll have to hit his free throws like he did against Cleveland. If he doesn't get the calls Gortat will have to play big minutes or the Magic will have to go small. Either way I see a bunch of technicals getting thrown thanks to Dwight's Mutombo-esque propensity for throwing around his elbows and complaining coaches. Perhaps a few flagrants as well which will later be downgraded to nothing.
Well, that was an exciting waste of my time and yours...Let's have a good finals shall we?
